See what Las Vegas really thinks of the Bills?

Last week, a minor skirmish broke out on my Twitter feed over what Las Vegas thinks of the Buffalo Bills' win total for 2012.

The problem is that too many people view an over/under wins number as a prediction of reality.
Actually, it's a prediction of money.
While some online sites started the Bills out at 6.5 wins, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Bills at 7. LVSC is the world's most influential oddsmaking operation, setting lines for a vast majority of legal sports books.

To further illustrate the concept that win totals aren't based on reality, consider that LVSC has posted early point spreads for every 2012 NFL game except for Week 17 (because many teams bench their starters to get ready for the playoffs). The Bills are favored to win eight of the 15 games forecasted, and probably would be favored at home in Week 17.

So why wouldn't LVSC peg its win total for the Bills at 8.5?

I called LVSC for expert insight to share on the Press Coverage blog. The oddsmaker who answered the phone? Joel Staniszewski, a Sloan native who graduated from St. Joe's and Buffalo State.
What are the odds of that? I should have asked him, but we were too busy talking about Bills wagers.

The first thing to consider about win totals is that they're posted before the free-agency period begins. Buffalo was assigned its 7 without knowing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson were on their way.

"The number is put up based on what oddsmakers think will get the most bets on both sides," Staniszewski said. "A team like the Bills that's traditionally poor, they're going to get a lower number because oddsmakers know that people are going to bet them under.
"The only people that are going to bet them over are homers who want to bet the Bills, which are few and far between."

The perfect scenario oddsmakers shoot for is an equal amount of money on either side. That's guaranteed money because they keep half the wagers plus a built-in commission commonly referred to as "the juice."
To that end, oddsmakers must account for all those people who view the Bills as a perennial doormat and the scarcity of Bills fans who will wager big money to show their confidence.
So when the Bills do make dramatic moves to improve their defense, why doesn't the win total then shoot upwards to reflect how much better their roster is?
"You let the people who are betting determine where you're going to move the number to," Staniszewski said. "You don't want to move the number too much. You've got to be smart with the number, assuming who's going to bet what."

Subtle movement protects the sports books. Suppose the Bills opened at 6.5 wins before free agency and then they signed two of the best defensive free agents on the market, whipping fans into a frenzy and making seven victories seem super attractive.
Sports books couldn't simply switch the win total to 7.5 or 8 because bettors who previously took the over would also bet the new under. And if the Bills finished 7-9, then books would face the possibility of cashing out an inordinate amount of tickets.
Sports books, therefore, must move their lines slowly and based on the money coming in to protect themselves.

And the money -- wiseguy money, even -- has been coming in on Buffalo. The LVSC win total for Buffalo now is at 7.5 wins and creeping toward 8. Money on Buffalo also is reflected at the Bovada.lv online casino, where the Bills' odds to win the Super Bowl have shrunk from 60-to-1 to 50-to-1.
"From what I gather," Staniszewski said, "the people that have bet the over are people that would be considered the sharp bettors, the people you keep an eye on and move the line a little when they bet it as opposed to when Joe Shmoe comes in and bets it.

"Those that are really keen to it know that if the Bills' defense can get even to the middle of the pack and their offense can stay as high-powered as it was in the beginning half of the year, this team can cause some damage."

Buffalife.com: Drake earns audience’s praise

More than any genre of music, hip-hop is entrenched in a battle mentality. Every verse is seen as a chance to stake your claim to the crown, to perpetuate your own myth with a combination of skill and swagger, to make sure anybody who has to follow you will be shaking in his boots. As a result, much of rap music features artists beating on their chests with abandon, obsessively regaling us about their mic skills, bank accounts and sexual prowess. In this battle-minded milieu, Drake stands out as a compelling conscientious objector, an artist with the potential to lead the genre into subtler places. The Torontonian child actor turned rap star makes lush, introspective music with one foot in the club and the other in the confessional booth; it’s a style so moody and personal, you had to wonder if it would translate live, especially in a place as huge and unruly as Darien Lake Performing Arts Center. On Friday night, Drake’s music didn’t just translate, it transcended. From the moment the lights cut out and the stage curtains billowed down, his set felt like something special, an electrifying, sophisticated offering of rap and R&B, running a kaleidoscope of emotions. A sea of worshipful fans got ear-splittingly loud as the star took the stage, backed by an incredible live band that impeccably recreated the compelling R&B soundscapes of his 2011 opus “Take Care.” And Drake earned every decibel of his audience’s praise, rapping with passion, singing with tenderness, exhorting his followers to make some noise with from-the-gut sincerity. He’s called this the “Club Paradise” tour, something that in another artist’s hands would be just an excuse to sing about partying. But this club was rooted in humanity. As Drake delivered lines like “I’m having a good time/They just trying to ruin it,” during a stunning “Up All Night,” slow-motion shots of an owl in flight played behind him, painting a nocturnal existence as something exotic and beautiful, but also unsettling. Then came the coup de grace. After introducing “Forever” as the kind of song the DJ pumps to maximum volume, Drake unleashed a passion that had him hopping around the stage. After this, he crept behind the stage, emerging in a white T-shirt as the band played the opening strains of “Marvin’s Room.” This “Take Care” standout depicts the narrator “drunk dialing” his ex. It was a profound one-two punch, one that cut to the core of why Drake is so important, and beloved — he knows that rap music is all about ego, and that there’s nothing more egotistical than pouring your heart out to the world.